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November Events Going On!     November 8th – 13th: Denver Arts Week “Denver Arts Week celebrates The Mile High City’s arts and culture scene with hundreds of events around the city. Explore vibrant art districts, check out museum exhibitions and outdoor sculptures, indulge in the performing arts, be inspired at film and literary events, and even buy some art of your own!” Schedule & More Info!         November 8th – 13th: Denver Film Festival “After a very successful virtual adaptation in 2020, the Denver Film Festival returns to in-person events for its 44th year. This year will include in-person events like Red Carpet premieres, events & screenings at the Sie FilmCenter and satellite locations, interactive goings-on, filmmaker conversations, and more! Part of the program + bonus features will also be available to stream on-demand on our Virtual Cinema platform.” Schedule & More Info!         November 11th – December 23rd: The Polar Express Train Ride “THE POLAR EXPRESS™ Train Ride is sure to re-kindle the Christmas spirit in True Believers! You’ll enjoy plenty of Holiday Magic, with Holiday Caroling and the “Hot Chocolate” song and dance performed in our all-new, heated Polar Express Pavilion. A ride to the North Pole aboard vintage coaches, pulled by an authentic, coal-fired steam locomotive, tops off the experience. There’s even a chance to Visit With Santa following your train ride!” Get Tickets!       November 16th – 21st: Denver Fashion Week “Denver Fashion Week (DFW) is Colorado’s largest fashion showcase featuring emerging designers, local boutiques, national brands, hairstylists, makeup artists and models.” More Info!             November 18th – December 24th: Cherry Creek Holiday Market “Taking place daily in Cherry Creek North on Fillmore St. between 1st and 2nd Avenue from November 18 through December 24, 2021, you can discover 30 local makers, designers and creators at the Cherry Creek Holiday Market, produced by Fetch Concepts. Providing shoppers a wide array of premium options and unique gifts, this free outdoor event also features a schedule of regular live music by local acts, a highly decorated holiday atmosphere including shipping containers made to look like giant holiday gift boxes, and full bar of festive drinks from Colorado companies The Family Jones and Crooked Stave.” More Info!         November 25th: Mile High United Way Turkey Trot “In its 48th year, this fun Thanksgiving tradition welcomes people to Denver’s beautiful Washington Park for a four-mile run and walk supporting Mile High United Way.  We are excited to be bringing this tradition back for an in-person experience this year!  Your registration supports families across Metro Denver. All proceeds from the event support Mile High United Way programs and Community Priorities, including; giving all children a strong start, supporting education and academic success, and creating economic opportunity for all.” Registration & More Info!       November 26th – December 12th: Film on the Rocks: Holiday Drive-In “Film on the Rocks is back for its 22nd season – and this fall/winter, we’re filled with the holiday spirit! Enjoy a one-of-a-kind drive-in movie experience at the iconic Red Rocks Park & Amphitheatre with a new lineup of films to celebrate the holidays. Drive-in films will be presented on an LED screen located in the Red Rocks Lower South Lot 2 parking area with audio delivered via a designated FM radio frequency. One ticket allows access for one standard vehicle entry, regardless of the number of passengers. All programs presented by Denver Arts & Venues are subject to vaccine requirements and attendees should be prepared to provide proof of vaccine upon request.” Schedule & More Info!       November 27th – December 24th: Colorado Ballet Presents The Nutcracker “The beloved holiday favorite returns in a dazzling production like no one’s ever seen, featuring all new sets and costumes created especially for Colorado Ballet. A sellout every year, this magical tale of Clara, the Nutcracker and the Mouse King is going to be dreamier than ever.” Get Tickets!            Have an amazing November!

As Close to a “Normal” Fall as Possible   “Normal is an illusion. What is normal to the spider is chaos to the fly.” These wise words are fitting this season when it comes to the real estate market. On one hand, you have home buyers, many of whom have had to endure some of the most frenzied bidding wars in recent memory. On the other hand, you have home sellers, who have mostly been able to pick from cream-of-the-crop offers — high prices and incredible terms. However, as we’ve begun to settle into this season, these sellers have had to descend slightly from their place of power and potentially take less-than-optimal offers compared to those of the last 18 months. That’s right – market conditions are finally closer to the “normal” trend for this time of year. Typically, there’s a slowdown in the fall, and thus buyers have an easier time finding houses as the buyer pool thins significantly. After all, who wants to move in the middle of a snowstorm or the holidays?! If you can believe it, buyers might even find a deal if they find an overpriced home that’s been sitting on the market a bit too long. Just beware of becoming overzealous with this information as sellers are much more likely to wait an extra week or so rather than accept a less-than-ideal offer for their homes. In most cases, they do not have the same desperation still felt by buyers in this market!   What is Happening with the Low Inventory? Despite a return closer to normal seasonality, there are still some peculiarities in the market this fall. At the end of September, there were only 3,970 active homes in the local MLS. That means that there are currently about 75% fewer homes to choose from than the 30-year average. This low inventory is expected to persist for years to come. The surge of buyer demand continues, as workers continue to work from home, trading up from their rentals to bigger houses with home offices and backyards. Further, many tech companies have added corporate offices in the Denver area, adding plenty of new people to the buyer pool. You might wonder why we don’t see more new home construction, considering our low inventory and high demand for homes.   Shortages and New Construction One tangible reason for persistent low inventory is that COVID-related material shortages have continued to plague many industries, including construction. Supply chain issues have made it more difficult to get building materials such as lumber, which in turn has driven up the cost of new houses considerably. According to Forbes, increased lumber costs in May 2020 added an average of $34K to the cost of a new home! Thankfully the cost per board has come down by about 64% since then. So now, lumber shortages may only amount to an increased cost of $12,240 per new home constructed. However, that figure doesn’t account for other ongoing material shortages. The Added Factor of Not Enough Workers Another significant issue adding to the low inventory problem is a shortage in labor. As reported recently by the Wall Street Journal, US construction productivity has not grown since World War II in terms of gross value-added per hour worked. Even if the material shortages described above were magically solved overnight, the timetable for new home construction would still be delayed due to a lack of skilled (and unskilled) workers to build homes. This is a major issue facing the real estate market that is not likely to be resolved in a hurry.   Prices Should Continue to Climb Other factors for slow home construction include mounting red tape in the process to apply for permits to build new condos/homes, the high cost of water tap fees, a shortage of land available to build per zoning issues, and more. Some of the challenges described above may eventually be solved through legislative action. However, unless there is a mass exodus from Denver due to job shortages or other major concerns, prices will continue to climb upward. They have done so for 44 out of the past 47 years in Metro Denver. Interest rates are also set to increase once the FED stops buying $120 billion in mortgage-backed securities and treasuries in July 2022. The FED has been buying mortgage bonds to help keep mortgage rates low and stabilize the market post-pandemic. When this purchasing comes to an end next year, it will provide upward pressure on rates. That will undoubtedly make homes less affordable and will diminish demand somewhat.   With all of that in mind, if you’re a qualified buyer in today’s market, things will only become more difficult. A slower fall/winter season may be the best possible time to act before the frenzied pace restarts in spring 2022 and beyond. If you’re a seller and have a flexible timeline, wait to list your house until the spring when it will sell for a premium! The most important thing to keep in mind when buying or selling any property, is whether the timing makes sense for you personally. I’d love to help you weigh your options so that you can make the best decision for yourself. Don’t hesitate to reach out!  

Has the Seasonal Cooldown Returned?   Based on the showing traffic, there has been a marked decline in the demand for homes since spring. As we officially move into fall, the housing market continues to cool off. That may not sound like a good thing, but it indicates that the market is continuing to cool down gradually, which is typical for this time of year. Median home prices were down around 0.5% at the end of August, coming in at $535K. That half-a-percent decline is a good sign that the slowdown we historically see in fall and winter is happening, unlike the chaos in the market this time last year. Home price appreciation should slow sharply in the months ahead. However, we see this trend as stable and healthy – no need to sound the alarm bells!     Speaking of alarm bells… As usual in our seller’s market, some are worried that we will see an excess of distressed home sales as we did back in 2010 after the Great Recession. We don’t see that as likely. According to DMAR (Denver Metro Association of Realtors), in August 2010 the Denver Metro saw 941 distressed home sales, which represented 32.3% of sales that month. In August 2021 there were only seven distressed home sales, which represented only 0.18% of sales. As moratoriums on evictions expire, some rental properties may become distressed, but according to DMAR this should not amount to a flood of distressed home sales like we saw in 2010. The main reason we are not concerned is that in August “tappable equity” (the amount available to borrow against while still maintaining at least 20% equity in their homes) in homeowners’ properties reached a record high. With so much equity on the table, the odds of ending up with a distressed home sale are very low. Most people who cannot afford their mortgage payments would be able to tap into that equity and simply sell their homes the normal way, thus bailing them out of any serious financial strain due to their mortgage payments. Another common concern we continue to hear from buyers is that they don’t want to buy at the height of home prices, so they plan to wait for them to go down. Like above, this scenario is not likely to happen. Home prices in the Denver Metro have gone up 45 out of the past 47 years! Based on the available data, it’s not likely that this trend will suddenly reverse, and homes will become dramatically less expensive.     It’s still a great time to make your move! Whether you are a buyer or a seller, it can still be the perfect time for you to make a move. Please don’t hesitate to reach out – each person’s circumstance is unique and I would love to support you in achieving your real estate goals!    

October Events around town!     October 1st to 29th: Comedy Showcase – Best of Denver “2 Shows Fridays – 7 PM & 9 PM *the price per ticket $15 – $18, must buy quantities of 2 – 6 tickets due to social distancing guidelines so bring your friends and split the tab! Shows are indoors in the back of Colorado Sake. Full-service Sushi, Fried Rice & Dumplings, and of course Colorado Sake! This is a Weekly Recurring Event. This event runs from Oct 1 – 29, 2021 and happens every Friday: 7:00 pm – 10:30 pm.” Tickets & More Info       October 1st to 31st: Corn Maze “Wind your way through seven acres of corn. The maze can be viewed from a 15-foot tall bridge. This year’s maze will have you buzzing with excitement while searching for the queen bee. Visitors under the age of 10 can explore the corn mini-maze.” Tickets & More Info           October 2nd to 31st: Fright Fest “Family by Day – Halloween festivities invade the park throughout the day each weekend. Little ghosts and goblins can enjoy Free Candy on the Trick or Treat Trail and partake in Halloween-themed interactive challenges. 12 p.m.-5 p.m.! Fright by Night – Fright by Night takes over when the sun goes down and blood-curdling shrieks, shrills, and chills will take place. Enjoy all your favorite Theme Park rides after dark and prepare to be on alert all around you, as Fright Fest comes Alive and creatures lurk around every thrilling corner. Get terrorized with three haunted attractions- No Vacancy, Big Top Freaks, and Séance.” Tickets & More Info         October 8th to 10th: Pumpkin Festival “Celebrate fall at Pumpkin Festival at Chatfield Farms, a treasured October tradition for the entire family. Enjoy a day of fall activities at Chatfield Farms. The ticket price includes access to the 10-acre pumpkin patch and family and children’s activities. Pumpkin prices vary by size; the average price is $8. Credit card payments ONLY for pumpkin sales. It is recommended to bring a wagon to transport pumpkins. Free pumpkin daycare is available while you enjoy the rest of the festival. You must purchase a ticket online for a specific date and time to visit. Tickets will not be available onsite. Tickets will be available for purchase in mid-September with advance ticket sales for Gardens members.” Tickets & More info         October 8th to 17th: Colorado Ballet Presents Giselle “Experience this romantic tragedy that continues to inspire audiences worldwide. Will the Wilis succeed in dancing Count Albrecht to death? Will Giselle be able to save her true love? The stunningly skilled athletes of Colorado Ballet bring the beauty and heartbreak of Giselle to the stage.” Tickets & More Info           October 13th: Colorado Avalanche Home Opener “Colorado will open its season at home at Ball Arena against the Blackhawks on Oct. 13!” Get Tickets!             October 19th to 24th: Glow at the Gardens “Glow at the Gardens™ is a luminous, nighttime celebration of America’s favorite gourd. Wander through a spooky, illuminated landscape as the Gardens dresses up for Halloween. Using all real pumpkins harvested from local farms, our pumpkin artists push the boundaries of traditional pumpkin carving to create larger-than-life sculptures and dense displays of jack-o’-lanterns, with grins and grimaces fit for the season. Performing artists bring spirits and specters to life at this enchanted autumnal experience.” Tickets & More Info         October 22nd to 31st: McGregor Scare “Family Fun: Bring the whole family on Saturdays and Sundays for festive fall fun! Pumpkin decorating, face painting, and movies on the lawn are just a few activities in store. Join us on Saturday, October 30th for Trick-or-Treat Street, a unique opportunity to explore McGregor Square and score some candy along the way! DANCE ‘TILL YOU’RE DEAD: Put your dance moves to the test on Friday each weekend with Live DJs. Be your own DJ on Friday, October 29th with our Disco-Themed cocktails and Halloween games await. Don’t forget the costume! Tickets & More Info      Have a great October!

Buyer Demand is Starting to Cool Down   Aside from hard to avoid high temps and excessive smoke from nearby wildfires, things are finally starting to cool down a bit in the Mile High City. As predicted earlier this year, there has been a gradual cool down of buyer demand. Many buyers have been frustrated by the lack of inventory or have just been priced out of the market due to rising prices and slower wage growth. This reduced buyer pool, along with an increase of homes brought to market last month, has allowed housing inventory to increase for a change. In July there were 4,056 active listings, which was up almost 30% from the end of June (3,122 active listings). We normally see an increase in homes on the market in the summer, but last month outpaced what we have seen historically. Still, average home price increases were still well above the historical average for a single month, coming in at 16.4% higher than the previous year. These price increases should slow into the fall and some prices could even decline later this year due to a large gap between housing prices and wage growth (See the graph below). Still a Strong Seller’s Market Despite recent changes, Denver is still a strong seller’s market. It’s just not quite as red-hot as it was at the beginning of the year. The average number of showings per active listing back then was in the astronomical: between 20-22 per home! The competition was fierce. To put that in perspective, that is almost double the historical number of people touring homes in January/February. In July, the average dropped to 12 showings per active listing, a number we haven’t seen in over six months of activity. Showing traffic is important because it is a sign of what is to come. This reduced traffic is a signal that fall will be a slightly easier time to buy a home.   Another indicator of this slight market cooldown is that homes are generally getting fewer offers. There are still multiple-offer situations. Often, there are 2-4 offers to choose from, but not always 10-15 like we were seeing at the start of the year. Buyers should have more of a fair fight when submitting offers. Many offers are also not as extreme as before. The average home is selling for around 3% over asking price, not 30% over asking like some from earlier this year. Sellers who know this will list their homes at more reasonable prices. This will ensure that they do not overreach and end up on the market for longer than desired and possibly have to reduce their list price. To help you see the intensity of demand for a given neighborhood, Your Castle has made a specialized map that focuses on the number of homes in a given neighborhood that sold at a premium over the past year. You can see the total number of homes that sold for over ask price, the percentage of homes that did so, and the average sales price in the area. For example, Wash Park East in the map sample had 35% of homes sell over asking price, and homes there sold for $1.57 million on average. Not too shabby! Compare those numbers to Wash Park West, where 63% of homes sold over asking price, and the average price was slightly lower at $885K. That area of the map is shaded orange to signify it had a fairly high percentage of homes selling at a premium. Now compare both of those neighborhoods to Athmar Park across I-25, where a staggering 70% of homes sold above asking price. There, the average sales price was $483K. That area of the map shaded red indicating that it was red-hot in terms of buyer demand. Homes there were selling well above asking price over the past year. These three neighborhoods are a good representation of the current macro trend in Metro Denver. Homes in luxury neighborhoods like Wash Park East had a significant number of homes sell for over asking price, but lower-priced areas brought far greater premiums. This is in large part due to a lack of entry-level homes for sale and intense demand.     With all of this information, an important thing to keep in mind is that demand can vary greatly in price point, size, location, etc. Please reach out to us if you are curious about what buying or selling would look like for you right now!  

Enjoy these September Events and Fun!     September 10th to 18th: Denver Beer Week “Enjoy nine days of all things beer during Denver Beer Week! There will be tons of beer-related events in Denver, America’s #1 beer city! Head to The Mile High City for tap takeovers, rare beer tappings, firkin nights, meet the brewer events, beer & food pairings and much, much more.” Events & More Info!         September 11th: University of Colorado Buffs v. Texas A&M Aggies “This upcoming football game between the University of Colorado and Texas A&M University will be played at Empower Field at Mile High. The game, set for Sept. 11, is one of the top non-conference games on the college schedule for the 2021 season. Texas A&M finished 9-1 in the abbreviated 2020 season, along with a No. 4 final ranking in both major polls (Associated Press and USA Today/Coaches). Colorado was 4-2 and entered the rankings briefly after opening 4-0; CU coach Karl Dorrell was the Pac-12 Conference coach of the year by both the AP and league coaches and was the FWAA’s First-Year Coach of the Year as well.” Get Tickets!       September 15th to October 15th: National Hispanic Heritage Month “Each year, Americans observe National Hispanic Heritage Month from September 15 to October 15, by celebrating the histories, cultures and contributions of American citizens whose ancestors came from Spain, Mexico, the Caribbean and Central and South America.” Events & More Info!         September 17th to 18th: Westword Music Showcase The Westword Music Showcase is back…and bigger than ever. The city’s largest single-day festival celebrating Denver’s music scene has been transformed for 2021 and will take over the RiNo neighborhood and Mission Ballroom grounds with a two-day festival filling both indoor and outdoor venues with live performances by local and national musical acts, as well as visual and performing arts events, food and drink opportunities and more.” Tickets & More Info!       September 18th – 19th: Denver Arts Festival “The Denver Arts Festival is a fine art and fine crafts festival that continues to be dedicated to supporting Colorado artists while also showcasing a select group of national artists. The Denver Arts Festival holds its annual premier event at Central Park’s Conservatory Green Neighborhood. The fine art and fine craft exhibition feature some of Colorado’s and the nation’s best artists with over 50,000 people expected to attend.” More Info!         September 26th: Denver Broncos v. New York Jets “The Denver Broncos take on the New York Jets at Empower Field.” Tickets & More Info!             September 30th to October 1st: Denver Food & Wine Festival “Denver Food + Wine Festival is a multi-day extravaganza of food, wine and spirits events presented by co-sponsors Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits of Colorado and the Colorado Restaurant Association. The annual event benefits three community nonprofit foundations the Colorado Restaurant Foundation, The Denver Post Community Foundation, and Kroenke Sports Charities. Festival events feature the best in Colorado’s restaurants paired with the finest wine and spirits, dinners, tastings and culminating with the festival’s signature event, The Grand Tasting. Through these series of events, Denver Food + Wine Festival aims to highlight the hospitality industry impact and celebrate Denver as a culinary & beverage destination.” Schedule & Tickets!   Have a great September!

Enjoy these August Events and Fun!      August 11-14: Cherry Creek North Food & Wine “Cherry Creek North Food & Wine is returning in a big way in 2021 to celebrate the diverse and sophisticated tastes of Cherry Creek North dining! This year, the event occurs over four days with an expanded lineup of intimate dining experiences, small bites, seminars and demos each day, all building up to the Grand Tasting sessions on Fillmore Plaza on Saturday. Guests can purchase tickets or a weekender pass for individual events to customize their Food & Wine experience to their own, unique tastes.” Tickets & More Info!           August 11, 19, & 26: Movies on McGregor “See your all-time favorite movies at our outdoor plaza all summer long on our giant LED screen. Open for all – No admission fees. Concessions available.” Schedule & More Info!             August 12 – 14: Dry Bar Comedy Live  “Dry Bar Comedy Tour LIVE is coming! The comedians who’ve generated over 1 billion online views and millions of fans bring their clean “Comedy For Everyone” to clubs and theaters on a nationwide tour. Come check out Dry Bar Comedy Tour, the internet sensation live and in person!” Tickets & More Info!           August 22: Reggae on the Rocks “LIVE NATION & BBC PRESENT Reggae On The Rockswith Rebelution, Steel Pulse, Inner Circle, The Green, Israel Vibration, Keznamdi, Judge Roughneck, DJ Mackle” Tickets!             August 26: Top Taco “At Top Taco, festival-goers sample unlimited taco tastes and signature tequila cocktails from some of the best restaurants in Denver, voting for their favorites to crown four categories of awards: Top Creative Taco, Top Traditional Taco, Top Vegetarian Taco, and Top Cocktail. With 5 stages of amazing music, creative tequila lounge areas, an entire tent dedicated to mezcal tasting and some of the best chefs and mixologists in the city, Top Taco has become the can’t-miss summer event in Denver – and always sells out.” Tickets & More Info!         August 28: Highlands Street Fair “Celebrate the summer and join us for the 38th annual Highlands Street Fair! Stroll along W. 32nd Avenue between Perry and Irving and enjoy live music, food from local restaurants, great shopping and more. Best of all, the event is free! Gather your friends or come with the whole family for a day of community and fun in the sun.” More Info!             August 28th: Denver Broncos v. Los Angeles Rams “The Denver Broncos take on the Los Angeles Rams at Empower Field!” Tickets & More Info!           We hope you have an incredible August!

Competition is Beginning to Cool Off a Bit for Buyers Sweltering heat waves have nothing on the red-hot Denver real estate market in 2021. Median home prices have soared due to a mix of continued population growth, a lack of housing inventory, an increase in the cost of building materials, and would-be sellers’ fears about ending up homeless after they sell their homes. In June, the median home price in Metro Denver was $545K. This is up from $445K the same time last year. That is a whopping 22.5% increase! However, there is finally some good news on the horizon for frustrated buyers. It appears that the market is finally starting to let off some steam. One of the best leading indicators for market performance is the Number of Showings per Active Listing. It is essentially a measure of the current demand for homes. As you can see from our showing trends graph below, the number of buyers touring homes and condos has been on a steep decline since April. The June showing traffic was the closest we have come to the historical average all year, which is usually around 8 or 9 showings per active listing in the summer. Although June averaged 14 showings per active listing, steeply declining showings is a signal that the market is starting to approach the historical average for this time of year.     We are hopeful that as news headlines share the message that the real estate market is starting to get back to “business as usual”, it will motivate prudent sellers to list their homes as they had intended pre-pandemic. With buyer competition on the decline, they will most likely not be as worried about not being able to find their next home. Especially since they are now most likely over-qualified and sitting on a pile of equity from 2020/2021. Don’t forget, the averagehome in Colorado increased in value by $50K in 2020 (CoreLogic). Historically, Spring is the best time to sell, and late summer is the best time to buy. Relatively speaking, we think that will be true this year too.   For Buyers: Home Prices Are Not Likely to Decline, And Rents Aren’t Either Given the current economy in Denver, there is no indication that home prices will go down soon as many renters hope. In fact, local economic factors point to a gradual slowdown in home price appreciation, not a decline in home prices. That said, if you are a qualified buyer who is on the fence about buying a home, this summer may be as good a time as ever to strike. Especially now that buyer demand is starting to weaken compared with the start of the year, and sellers will most likely be encouraged to list their first homes and trade up. The sad truth is that for many buyers who have subscribed to waiting for a greener pasture where the home prices in Denver are low and options are plenty… they may be waiting for a long time. In the meantime, their rents will be ever-increasing, and they’ll be paying someone else’s mortgage payment instead of their own. Although rent increases slowed and even declined in some cases over the past year due to the pandemic, they’re already on the rise nationally, and back to pre-Covid levels (Zillow).     For Sellers: With Less Buyer Competition, Now May Be a Good Time to List Now that the seemingly never-ending buyer demand has started to ease slightly, this may be a good time to cash out and sell your home. Many sellers are staying put because they think they will be homeless once their home is sold. Now that buyer demand is beginning to ease and potential buyers are dropping out of the market, competition is not quite as fierce as it was at the start of the year. Plus, properties across the state appreciated in value by an average of $50K last year (CoreLogic). That additional equity could go a long way towards a down payment on your dream home. The appreciation per property in Denver is likely even more than $50K, especially if you have invested back into your home and/or put in some sweat equity to fix the place up while you lived there. Look up a valuation estimate online, then reach out to us for an in-depth market analysis. Denver is still a seller’s market, and as long as that remains the case, you have the upper hand in negotiations with buyers. We are here for you so don’t hesitate to reach out!  

Some People Are on the Move! Things are heating up! Both literally, because Summer is officially upon us, but also figuratively when it comes to the pressure cooker that is our current real estate market. Unprecedented low housing inventory has persisted into summer. As of June 1, there were only 2,075 houses on the market in Metro Denver, down a whopping 71% from last May. This extremely low inventory has driven up average home prices. If you look at the Monthly Market Snapshot below, you can see that the average sales price is up 26% from this time last year. Some of that price increase is due to the lack of entry-level inventory on the market, with a larger amount of luxury homes making up the inventory than normal. However, if you look at the median sold price, which removes some of the extreme luxury outliers, the average sales price is still up about 22% over last year!     As you can imagine, many homeowners are jumping on the opportunity to sell their homes and cash out, sometimes moving to more affordable parts of Colorado, or even out of state. Others are afraid to sell their homes because they are fearful that they may not be able to find another home to move into. Many are content to stay put because they have seen an average equity increase of $47K in Colorado since last June (Source: CoreLogic). The high prices are also pushing some would-be buyers out of the market. Did the pandemic affect migration within the state? We were curious how the pandemic had affected migration within the state. The charts below show the net migration per county over the past 3 years. One thing to keep in mind is that these percent changes are based on the overall population of that county, which does vary. However, you can see that 2020 negatively impacted the net migration to Denver, Boulder, and to a minor degree, Arapahoe County. In contrast, Weld County and Douglas County have experienced an inflow of residents. Some of the mountain counties also had a positive net migration, such as Grand County and Summit County.   Another development to note is that buyer demand may finally be softening. According to the Wall Street Journal, the University of Michigan’s national “Buying Conditions for Houses” metric fell to its lowest level since the height of the pandemic shutdown, dropping even lower than April 2020. This will most likely lead to a gradual reduction in the buyer pool. Fewer buyers will likely lead to an eventual slowdown on average price increases. If you are a seller looking to capitalize on the current market, now would be a good time to list your house before this new trend takes full effect. If you are a buyer, this may herald a bit less competition in the future.     Low Inventory Still an Issue Even with fewer buyers looking for homes, there are still major obstacles to fixing the low housing inventory issue. These obstacles will most likely keep Metro Denver a seller’s market for some time. Commodity prices are one major concern since the materials to build new houses saw huge spikes due to Covid. Lumber is a great example. Prices per/yard have tripled since the pandemic hit. Part of this is due to shipping complications, an increase in home renovations, and a European pine beetle wreaking havoc and causing supply shortages. On the bright side, measures are being taken by the state to apply some of the Covid stimulus to affordable housing and new developments are being built. However, the scarcity of homes for sale is not likely to fully dissipate for years to come. If you’re thinking of making a move and want to find out the best strategy for your unique situation, don’t hesitate to reach out! We would love to support you in achieving your real estate goals.