Why Trying to Time the Denver Real Estate Market is a Fool’s Errand
If you’ve been holding off on buying or selling a home in the Denver metro area because you’re waiting for the “perfect time,” it’s time to rethink your strategy. Trying to time the market is a gamble that even the pros can’t win consistently. The reality is that no one can predict when prices will hit rock bottom or peak. Instead, the smartest real estate moves are made when they align with your goals and personal situation—not by chasing market trends. Whether you’re upsizing, downsizing, or just looking for a change, now may be the right time to make your move.
In the Denver metro, we’ve seen a slight dip in home prices, with the average close price dropping 2.47% from $689,616 in September of last year, to $672,600 in September of this year. Meanwhile, the average days a home stays on the market increased by 5.41% from 37 days to 39 days. New listings have remained stable at 5,053, while pending sales have increased by 3.64%, reaching 3,761. Active listings have grown slightly by 3.65% to 11,115 month-over-month— but a notable 45.69% year-over-year rise.
To put that into perspective, the average number of active listings for September between 1985 and 2021 was 15,253. The record-high was 31,450 listings in 2006, and the record-low was 3,971 in 2021. Historically, listings have increased by an average of 0.74% from August to September, so this year’s 3.65% jump shows a strong late-season inventory growth.
Months of inventory, which measures how long it would take to sell all available properties if no new listings came on the market, has been steadily increasing. In May, there were 2.18 months of inventory, rising to 3.6 months by September. While still below Denver’s balanced market range of 4 to 6 months, this shift marks a significant change from recent years. It’s a stark contrast to the pandemic frenzy, when inventory dropped below one month, fueling an intense seller’s market.
Info for Sellers
Homes are now spending more time on the market, often requiring price reductions before finding a buyer. Buyer demand has tapered off due to higher interest rates and, to some extent, the upcoming presidential election. Many buyers are waiting for the perfect home and are less willing to compromise, especially when they’re paying more in interest. When buyers do find the right property, they’re quick to negotiate—even if the home is newly listed.
Sellers need to recognize that the market is taking longer to absorb inventory, and this trend may continue as we approach the election and the holiday season. Some sellers are choosing to wait until spring, aiming to list during what is traditionally the peak selling season for the Denver metro area, a time when home prices tend to reach their highest for the year.
Info for Buyers
On the other hand, buyers who wait for the election to pass or the holiday season to wrap up may miss out on prime opportunities. Historically, home prices tend to rise after an election cycle. If you’re waiting for the perfect time to buy, you could find yourself regretting not making a move while the current inventory and pricing are more favorable.
Whether you’re buying or selling, trying to time the market is risky and rarely yields the perfect result. Real estate decisions should be based on your own needs and circumstances, not the fluctuating market trends. The best move is to work with the right agent, stay informed, and act when it’s right for you—not when you think the market has hit its peak.
*We use reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information. The real estate market changes often. We make no guarantees of future real estate performance and assume no liability for any errors of omission in the content.